A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
