Just 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or the reason of the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After the England international swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
According to Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club which has just won 10 in a row, they appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
